Moderate risk for severe weather across Germany and West Czech tomorrow with a low tornado threat and high hail threat with a slight issued for East France, Switzerland and Marginal issued for much of Central Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, East Turkey, Georgia and South Russia.  With a cold front moving in from the UK and a upper trough formation ahead and behind the warm front there is a moderate chance for severe weather across Germany and West Czech, SBCAPE values range from 2,000-3,000 j/kg for much of the area with the Mixed Layer ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg. Potent updrafts are available to form which brings a increased risk of large hail with the storms. With another upper trough forming behind another set of severe weather could potentially form behind the trough which will move in through the day and cause the first bout of severe weather. A isolated tornado threat is present with all of the systems in Germany, SRH looks weak at 100-150m2s2, 0-6km Shear ranging from 30-40kts and 0-1 km shear widespread at 15-30kts. Storms could potentially form early afternoon and form into a line into the late afternoon/evening. Threats are frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, straight line winds [weiterlesen]