Tomorrow we have issued a Marginal for Most parts of Germany, South France, North East Spain, Switzerland, parts of Austria and The Czech Republic and for Most parts of Eastern Central Europe for High Lightning Totals, Gust Front Formations, Excessive Precipitation and/or Hail.
As the cold front continues to push into Central Europe, 2 Upper troughs form ahead of it. SBCAPE values range from 1,000-2,000 j/kg over Germany and South East France, the Mixed Layer values in the same area are 750-1,200 j/kg. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are showing a good chance of the storms producing excessive amounts of precipitation which could lead to localized flooding in a few spots. We are aware that there are a lot of festivals going on in Germany tomorrow and we ask you to proceed with caution! If you hear thunder go to somewhere safe as these storms will pose a threat with Moderate to high lightning totals! Germany is also under a Supercell threat with DLS (Deep Layer Shear) values at 30-40kts and Bulk Shear at 30kts. There is also a isolated Tornado threat in place to the North (Outlined with Red).
for Eastern Central Europe and Western Turkey there is some 2,000 j/kg in place with the potential for strong updrafts to occur which could drop some big hail with some hail accumulations forming. These storms pose a higher threat with lightning and hail along with Spain. Scotland and parts of England have been given a TSM for 2 upper troughs forming to the North of Scotland, these cells will not be severe but has the potential to produce frequent lightning!