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a Marginal issued for South East Bulgaria, Turkey and South Russia with a Level 4 Hail threat and a isolated Tornado Threat.
As a cold front pushes into South East Europe this afternoon it is set to bring the possibility of explosive weather with a isolated Tornado Threat. First there is a flooding potential over Bulgaria and Romania with high PWAT values in place along the Cold Front which range from 1″-1,8″. A marginal has been issued for South East Bulgaria and North Turkey for SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,900 j/kg for the majority while there are spikes of over 2,000 j/kg. Expected initiation could be early morning and progress into the night, Excessive precipitation is a risk with these cells with PWAT values of around 1″-1.2″. A level 4 hail threat has been issued for the potential of some very powerful updrafts which you could see some large hail form within. A level 1 Tornado Threat has been issued for Bulgaria for SRH 0-3km values of 150-250m2s2, 0-6km Shear 50kts and 0-1km Shear values are very weak even with the good SRH so we have only issued a level 1.
South Russia has been issued a Marginal for the potential of severe weather. SBCAPE values are extreme at 2,000-3,000 j/kg and 3,000 j/kg in the Mixed Layer, although we would like to issue a slight charts aren’t agreeing on the potential for precipitation development. But if any cells do develop they will be very severe with the conditions in play and could drop some large hail and maybe a isolated Supercell. A Level 1 Tornado threat has been issued for SRH 0-3km values at 150-225m2s2, 0-6km Shear at 30kts and weak 0-1km Shear.