More possibilities of severe weather for parts of Europe tomorrow along with a few tornado threats in place!
Marginals for Italy, Poland and Central European countries have been issued for the cold front that has plagued Europe for the past 2 days continues to push East, there is a marginal chance for severe weather across Poland, North Italy and Central European countries.
An upper trough forms ahead of the cold front extending from Poland into North East Italy. Surface Based CAPE values are most at 1,300 j/kg within the Marginal areas with a spike of 2,000 j/kg over North East Croatia.
Poland is under an excessive Precipitation risk, which could lead to some localized flooding to flooding in places. The major risks within the Central European countries are high lightning totals, Quasi-Linear Convective Systems (Squall Lines) with the Risk of moderate sized hail and Hail accumulations.
North Poland is under a Tornado threat due to SRH 0-3km Values at 200m2s2 with 0-6km Shear at 20-30kts so a isolated tornado or two is not out of the question.
Spain, Morocco and Algeria are all under a Marginal threat for two single Low Pressure developments, one over Spain and the other over Tunisia. Both developments will cause upper troughs, 1 on the Eastern Spanish Coast, over the Pyrenees and over Algeria. Surface Based CAPE values are mostly at 1,000 j/kg with an excessive precipitation risk for the Pyrenees and Eastern Coast.
High lightning totals are possible tomorrow; within these cells along with a localized flooding risk, big hail is possible within these storms if updrafts remain potent. A tornado threat has been issued for Central/Eastern Spain for SRH 0-3 km values 150m2s2 and 0-6km sheer 20kts with a spike of 15kt 0-1km shear. For North Africa the Tornado risk has been issued for the area having 225m2s2 and o-6km shear at 30kts.
Turkey has been put under a marginal for 2 single upper troughs forming on either side of the Marginal, because of this, this will cause some potent updrafts which has the potential to drop big hail or accumulations. High lightning totals are possible with straight line winds and a hail threat.