Marginal day across Central Eastern parts of Europe tomorrow with a Tornado threat over Poland.
The main marginal area, which covers areas from Germany to NW Bulgaria and Ukraine, has been issued for 3 upper trough formations within the area, one situated over Germany, Hungary and Ukraine.
SBCAPE is most between 1,000-1,500 j/kg within the risk area with the odd spikes of 2,000 j/kg dotted around, which could enhance the severity of the cells if they do form within the spikes. There are slight hail risk, which could bring some Hail accumulations if thunderstorms do develop. There is a threat for High Precipitation cells in West Poland and East Germany.
A tornado threat has been issued for Western Central Poland for SRH Values ranging from 100m2s2 to 250 m2s2 with 20kts 0-6km Shear and 0-1km shear values at 15-20kts.
Northern/East Turkey has been issued a Marginal for an upper trough, forming on the Northern Coast into the main land bringing SBCAPE values at 1,000 j/kg around the Northern Coast and for far South Russia there are SBCAPE Values exceeding 2,000+ j/kg… BUT there is a strong CAP in place, which could very well limit the convective initiation early on, so the most likely cells will happen around the coast and on the Georgian Border. The main threats are high lightning totals, Straight line winds and/or Hail.