Tomorrow a Marginal has been issued for South Eastern Europe with a Level 3 Hail threat and Level 2 Tornado Threat.
As the low pressure system that has plagued Europe with Severe weather over the past few days begins to occlude, The cold Front moves into Eastern Europe behind a weakening Warm Front, SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front Range from 1,000-2,5000 j/kg across Central Ukraine and 750 j/kg for the rest with a 1,000 j/kg spike over Serbia. PWAT values at 1″-1.7″ so excessive precipitation is a risk which could bring some flooding in places. Potent updrafts have the potential to form which moderate to large hail is possible within the risk area and a Level 2 tornado threat has been issued for SRH 0-3km values ranging from 150-300m2s2 and 0-1km Shear 15-35kts. A isolated tornado risk cant be ruled out.
Wide spread thunderstorms can develop across the region tomorrow with Central Europe looking towards mid afternoon to evening off formation as upper trough forms across the Alps as occluding fronts push through. a big risk for many is excessive precipitation and flooding which within these systems some could develop some moderate lightning totals.