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Tomorrow is a marginal day for many parts of Europe with a Hail threat for the West and a Level 1 Tornado Risk for Holland, Belgium and North West Germany with a Level 2 Tornado Risk being issued for North Spain.
As a cold front moves into Western Mainland Europe, it will drift into high temperatures that will cause Instability to arise to around 1,000-1,600 j/kg in the Marginal area of France while North Spain has SBCAPE values of 2,000 j/kg. Within these regions there are the potential for some Potent updrafts to form which has the potential to drop Moderate to Large hail. These thunderstorms will be outflow dominant with the formation of Gust Fronts and Straight Line winds, Surface flooding and Localized flooding is also a threat along with the threat of high lightning totals. A level 1 tornado threat has been issued to the North for 150-200m2s2 SRH Values with 0-1km shear at 15-20kts so a isolated tornado cant be ruled out. A level 2 has been issued over North Spain for SRH values 150-250m2s2 along with 0-6km Shear 30kts and 0-1km shear 15-20kts so a isolated tornado or 2 is possible.
The marginals to the East have been issued for a weakening cold front moving into Eastern Central Europe causing SBCAPE values mostly at 500-800 j/kg, These storms have the potential for moderate lightning totals and will more than likely be quick fire cells with the chance for some long lasting thunderstorms in there also. South Russia has been issued a Marginal for a Upper Trough forming to the East of the Russia/Ukraine border. These storms have the potential to be violent and we could see a few DTAs in the region.