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Tomorrow has a risk of severe storms across parts of Western Europe into Central with 3 low isolated Tornado risk Areas.
As the cold front associated with a low pressure system situated over Norway, it continues to push into more central regions. This brings a risk of severe weather throughout the day with a trough forming over South Germany and pushes further South.
Morning thunderstorms can develop in South Germany with SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,400 j/kg with good moisture with dew points ranging from 17-20C. These storms pose a risk with high lightning totals, Gust Front formations that will have straight line winds, heavy precipitation and a Potential for moderate hail to form.
The storms that form within the read line will have a low Tornadic possibility with SRH at 150-200m2s2, 0-6km Shear 40kts and a few spikes of 0-1km Shear at 15kts. These will push along the cold front into Austria for the afternoon to evening. These storms pose the same risk as stated above with another low Tornadic cell possibility within them.
Into the afternoon there is a possibility of severe weather in North Spain, Pyrenees, SE/E France and North Italy along the same cold front as it advances. Along the front SBCAPE values for the majority are over 1,000 j/kg. Localized flooding in South France and North Italy is a risk, along with the severe thunderstorms with precipitable Water at 1.7-1.8″.
High lightning totals are possible within these storms and we could see multiple dangerous thunderstorms develop over the course of the day, with the severest in the Afternoon-late evening. For North Spain there is a threat of severe weather into the night, as SBCAPE values sustain.
The more intense thunderstorms are a possibility to the East/South East of Bilbao in the evening with SBCAPE values exceeding over 3,000 j/kg with the potential for some strong updrafts to form in the area, These thunderstorms also possess a low isolated tornado possibility with SRH values at 200-250m2s2, 0-6km Shear 20kts and 0-1km Shear 15kts.