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A slight severe weather threat has been issued for Northern Spain, South and South East France with a low isolated tornado threat for North Spain.
North Spain and South/South East France has been issued a slight for a Warm Front moving North with a Trough forming behind it. Extreme SBCAPE values will be present with it ranging from 1,000-2,000 j/kg for the majority with Spikes of over 3,000 over the South East and 3,000-4,000 for the South.
Cap inversion does look like it will remain until late afternoon as AROME simulated satellite is showing cells firing off in North West Spain/Portugal border and in theafternoon/evening Cells could fire off to the South and South East of France and will push North East. Large hail will be a threat with the cells that do develop throughout the afternoon and evening, a low isolated tornado threat is present in North Spain.
As the evening progresses it is likely that a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) is possible later into the Evening. High lightning totals, Straight line winds, heavy precipitation and Hail are the main threats tomorrow so keep an eye on the sky tomorrow and be safe!
We have only issued a TSM for North Italy as of now as it looks like capping inversion could stop the storms from being as severe. If we feel it should be upgraded we will issue an update tomorrow morning. If things remain even with moderate SBCAPE values of 1,000 and MLCAPE 1,000 the main threats will be moderate to high lightning totals.