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A Marginal has been issued for North/Central and East Coast Italy with a hail threat and another for South East Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia.
As the cold front that caused severe weather for South Western Europe continues to push further East it develops more into a occlusion with just the lower remaining a cold front which a trough will form in front of it over South Poland, Slovakia.
This brings SBCAPE values of 750-1,200 j/kg in the marginal risk area with a spike of 2,000 j/kg over Croatia and Slovenia mid afternoon. Cap inversion is pretty weak over this area so we should see development on these storm systems around mid day to Mid Afternoon. Hail isnt much of a threat but Excessive precipitation for South East Poland, East Slovakia and Eastern Hungary is a risk with high precipitation thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms will be Moderate to high lightning totals, heavy precipitation and straight line winds.
A marginal has been issued for North East/Central and East Coast italy for a minor low forming over the land causing a trough in North Eastern Italy bringing SBCAPE values of 1,000-2,400 j/kg while the MUCAPE spikes over 3,000 j/kg. With the chance of potent updrafts in the area hail is a risk which could bring some hail accumulations.
While the CAP is moderate we expect initiation around Mid-Afternoon with dew Points ranging from 20-25°C. These storms do have a risk of moderate lightning and hail to occur.
Spain has only been given a TSM even though to the North West there are CAPE vales in excess of 2,000 j/kg, the reason is CAP Inversion, this is where there is dry air aloft which stops convective uplift from happening. the main threat of storms will initiate in the evening around Central and North East where the CAP will be the weakest it seems.