A marginal has been issued for various parts of Europe including the Majority of Portugal, East and West Spain, West/Central Italy, Greece, South Turkey, East Hungary, Romania and Moldova.
Portugal, East and West Spain have been given a marginal for the chance of localized thunderstorms to form in the Afternoon with a central low system forming situated over Morocco.
Although SBCAPE values are low for the west and Portugal at 400-800 j/kg in the Mixed Layer values sustain at around 700 j/kg with the chance for potent updrafts to form which bring the risk of moderate hail to form within the thunderstorms that do initiate.
PWAT looks weak and almost none existent but AROME, GFS and WRF agree with the chance of convection to initiate.
East Spain has been issued a marginal for SBCAPE values of over 1,000 j/kg with spikes of over 1,000 j/kg in the Mixed Layer. CAP inversion may hold these cells off for a bit but they could form Mid-Late Afternoon. Hail will be a threat within the system that do form.
A marginal has been issued Central West Italy for severe thunderstorms. Majority of the SBCAPE are 800-1,000 j/kg with spikes over 1,000 j/kg within the Mixed Layer with the chance for moderate updrafts within the area which could bring some hail accumulations within the systems that do form. There is some CAPE to the north but with the lack of parameters and CAP Inversion it is unlikely that strong thunderstorms will develop to the North.
Greece has been issued for a Trough formation over the mainland which could bring some high precipitation thunderstorms to the area with a low risk of Hail. SBCAPE again looks moderate and spotty with a few spikes over 1,000 j/kg and ML 750 j/kg.
Romania, Hungary and Moldova have been given a Marginal for the chance of thunderstorms to develop behind the occlusion over to the East. A trough forms along the East side of the occlusion which looks to bring SBCAPE values of over 1,000 j/kg to SE Romania where the severest thunderstorms look more likely to form. These cells that do form could have moderate to high lightning rates.