Two marginal areas tomorrow, Spain and Turkey along with a widespread thunderstorm risk for many parts of the east tomorrow along with a TSM Being issued for the Midlands in the UK and South Ireland. Spain has a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Spain has been issues a marginal for severe thunderstorm development mid to late afternoon. With SBCAPE values around 700 j/kg in the center and a weakening CAP in the afternoon over the area we have covered.
Although SBCAPE values exceed 2,000 j/kg in North Spain, North West and East Spain while large areas are 1,000-1,000 j/kg, With High pressure dominant and dry air aloft it is unlikely any initiation can take place. Hail is a threat within these storms as updrafts to have the potential to suspend in the upper atmosphere and they could bring a risk of moderate to high lightning totals.
Turkey has been issued a Marginal for the chance of high precipitation thunderstorms through out the day that could bring a risk of localized flooding with PWAT Values around 1.25″. these storms will also have a threat of moderate to high lightning totals, straight line winds and/or Hail.