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Widespread thunderstorm risk for many parts of Europe tomorrow with marginals being issued for South West Europe, South Germany, North East Europe along with a level 2 tornado risk and Turkey and South Russia.
We will start off with the TSM for the UK, reason why for Wales and Midlands, even though there are SBCAPE values of over 1,000 j/kg for the South West and South CAP and dry air aloft will stop any storms developing in them regions and even the thunderstorms over Wales and midlands could struggle to initiate with High Pressure still dominant. If the storms do initiate they will be very Localized.
South West Europe and Germany has been given a marginal for thunderstorms expected to initiate in the afternoon and a Low pressure system develops over the North West. With this low pressure development it is likely that it should help convection initiate and push through the weak CAP that will be in place.
SBCAPE values well exceed 2,000-3,000 j/kg in the region with MLCAPE looking at 1,500-2,000 j/kg. A hail risk is in place for the areas as potent vertical updraft speeds look to have a risk of suspending creating moderate to large hail within the thunderstorms. Risks with these storms will be moderate to high lightning totals, heavy rainfall and hail.
Marginal and a level 2 tornado risk has been issued for Central East Poland, South Lithuania, Serbia and Russia. With SBCAPE values ranging from 1,200-1,600 j/kg and MLCAPE at 750-1,000 j/kg with a weak CAP in place storms could initiate early and be long lasting, Excessive precipitation is a risk within these thunderstorms as PWAT is at 24mm.
A tornado risk has been issued with SRH at 150m2s2, 0-6km Shear 40-50kts and 0-1km shear 15-30kts a isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Risks are moderate to high lightning totals, heavy rainfall, straight line winds and/or hail.