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Widespread thunderstorm risk all across Europe with Marginals being issued for the UK and along the cold front that extends from Germany to Russia. Hail risks for France, North East Spain, North England with a level 1 Tornado threat for the UK.
The UK there has been a lot of debate and uncertainty surrounding today with a strong CAP inversion to the south and MUCAPE values of 2,000 j/kg but there isn’t much that can initiate the storms with temperatures expected to sore to 34°C in London and 30°C for the majority of the south with high pressure dominant. The reason a marginal has been issued is for the potential for severe thunderstorms to form within the area is a upper trough formation over the Midlands to North England with MUCAPE values of 1,000-2,000 j/kg, Where these storms will form can not be said as they will be hit and miss and very isolated. When the storms do form and *if* they do there will be a hail risk within them which we have gave a level 2 for. A isolated tornado and supercell can not be ruled out with Bulk Shear values at 40kts, 0-6km Shear 50kts, SRH 0-3km 150-200m2s2 and 0-1km spiking at 15-20kts in some places. Risks will be frequent lightning, Heavy Rainfall, Hail and/or Severe wind gusts.
France, Germany and Spain have been issued a marginal for a chance of severe weather with SBCAPE Values ranging from 1,000 j/kg to a 3,000 j/kg to the North of France. There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon although they may not be long tracked and isolated, PWAT Values don’t excel but there is a potential there. If thunderstorms do develop they will have a threat of moderate to high lightning totals, Heavy Rain and Hail possible.
For the rest of Europe along the cold front which extends into Russia, a upper trough forms over Eastern Europe in Ukraine which will enhance the thunderstorm threat and uplift along the front with a Hail threat for Central Europe. SBCAPE values are at 1,000-1,600 j/kg for most of Eastern/Central Europe with a few spikes of over 2,000 j/kg over Eastern Central Europe. Frequent lightning will be a threat with the chance of hail accumulations.