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3 Marginals have been issued for South East France, North Italy, South Central Europe, West Turkey and South Russia with a Level 3 Hail threat and level 1 tornado threat issued for North East Italy.
A long upper trough forms in the afternoon extending from Italy to Bulgaria, SBCAPE values in the marginal region mostly are at 1,000 j/kg with a 2,000 j/kg patch over Slovakia and Croatia while North Italy has SBCAPE values ranging from 2,000-3,000 j/kg. With potent updrafts having the potential to form a level 3 hail risk has been issued for any storms that do form within the blue lines for could bring moderate hail sizes. Storms are expected to form as early as mid day tomorrow for South Central with Italy and France looking at late afternoon – evening. A Tornado threat has been issued for North East Italy for SRH 0-3km models showing 100-200m2s2, 0-1km Shear 15-20kts, 20kts 0-6km Shear, a Isolated tornado cant be ruled out.
South Russia has been issued a marginal primarily for intense thunderstorms and excessive precipitation. With a cold front moving in and a upper trough forming ahead of it this brings SBCAPE values ranging from 750-1,000 j/kg. Thunderstorms could initiate early afternoon and progress throughout the day. These storm could bring moderate to high lightning totals, severe wind gusts and Localized flooding!