Widespread thunderstorm risk for many parts of Europe extending from France to Russia, a Slight risk has been issued for South East France and North West/Central Europe and Marginals issued for much of France and South Central/East Europe with a Isolated Tornado threat for Eastern Europe and East France.
A slight has been issued for South East France and North West/Central Italy for Dew Points of 20-22°C and SBCAPE values of 1,000-2,000 j/kg, Potent updrafts are likely to form and cause some moderate sized hail with a chance of large hail. With a cap inversion in play for most of the day the chance of thunderstorms developing will be in the evening when the upper trough moves more east into Italy. Excessive precipitation is a risk with the systems that do develop with PWAT values at 1.7″ and localised flooding is a potential threat or even flooding in some places in low lying areas in hills. a Level 1 tornado threat has been issued for East France for SRH values 150-250m2s2 and 0-1km shear localised around 15-20kts.
A marginal has been issued for France, Switzerland and North Italy, for the potential of severe thunderstorms developing along a upper trough in the afternoon with SBCAPE values ranging from 1,000-1,800 j/kg with a spike of 2,000 over East France, with dew points ranging from 16-18°C with the chance of some powerful updrafts forming to the south which could drop some moderate sized hail within them, PWAT values do range from 1″ to 1,4″ which could cause some excessive precipitation in places which could lead to some localised flooding in places.
Marginal has been issued for Greece to Russia for a chance of severe thunderstorms but primarily for excessive precipitation. SBCAPE Values range extensively from 750-1,500 j/kg for much of the marginal area while there is a spike of over 2,000 j/kg over North East Romania. Frequent lightning could be a threat along with some small hail and accumulations but these could be very outflow dominant and gust fronts formation with severe winds gusts. Localised flooding is a possibility in the Marginal area with PWAT Values range from 1″ to 1.8″. A level 2 tornado threat has been issued for SRH Values ranging from 100-150m2s2 and 0-1km shear values at 15-25kts.