Warnings for Europe Convective Outlook 27-6-2017

Tomorrow is a Marginal day for much of Europe with a Level 3 hail threat for North Spain and South France and West Italy and South Central Europe with a isolated tornado threat for South France. 

A marginal has been issued for North Spain, South France, North France, South Belgium and South Germany for 2 upper trough formations, one over South France the other over Northern Western mainland Europe. This does bring SBCAPE values for most at 1,000 j/kg within the regions with a 2,000 j/kg spike over South France and South Germany with Dew points ranging from 16-20°C, Updrafts look moderate so small to moderate hail will be possible within a few cells but most will miss these although accumulations will be possible. Excessive precipitation is a risk which could lead to some localised flooding. The main hail threat is to the South, the hail parameter shows a large hail possibility over Catalunya but with a strong cap in place it is unlikely any thunderstorms have a chance to initiate if they do they will be elevated bases. A level 1 tornado threat has been issued for South France for SRH 0-3km values ranging from 150-250m2s2 with 0-6km shear at 40kts and 0-1km shear at 15-25kts.

Marginals have been issued for West Italy, South Central Europe into Russia for a chance of severe thunderstorms developing through out the day, SBCAPE values for the majority range from 750j/kg to 1,600 j/kg and in the Mixed Layer CAPE values for many are at 750j/kg with a few spikes at 1,000 j/kg so the storms that do develop could potentially be elevated bases over South Europe. Excessive precipiation is a threat for North Italy, Romania and Russia and in lesser extent for the rest of the marginal area as for the 3 countries PWAT values range from 1.5-1.7″. 

Über Angelo D Alterio 4358 Artikel
Seit 2013 bin ich verantwortlicher Gesellschafter/Meteorologe bei der Unwetteralarm Schweiz GmbH und beim regionalen Wetterdienst WetterauwetterTV Meine Spezialgebiete sind neben allgemeinen Unwetterwarnungen, Sturm und Orkan Vorhersagen. Des Weiteren arbeite ich als Medienmeteorologe für regionale Radiosender. Geboren in den 1970er Jahren im hessischen Bad Vilbel.