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Marginal day for a few areas tomorrow along with a low tornado risk for North East Italy and a Hail risk for many parts of South Central Europe, with a Potential Localized flooding risk for North East Europe.
A marginal has been issued for many parts of South Central Europe as the cold front that has effected Poland and other central countries today, This now pushes further East and will bring a excessive precipitation risk for the Ukraine and South Serbia along with the chance for some severe thunderstorms.
Ahead of the cold front a upper trough will form across the south Central European countries bringing SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 j/kg in most places with a few spikes of over 2,000 j/kg, in the Mixed layer the highest values will mostly be over Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, North Greece and Macedonia. With the chance for some potent updrafts there is a Hail Risk for many Central countries. The main risks tomorrow will be High Lightning totals, Straight Line Winds and Hail.
North Italy has been issued a Marginal the chance of severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon/Early Evening as there will be a spike of 1,000 j/kg within the point, We have issued a Level 1 Tornado Risk with this as there is potential with SRH 0-3km values max at 175m2s2 and very weak 0-1km shear within. The main risk will be a funnel cloud if anything does develop.